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Paul the Octopus
Paul in his tank, next to a football boot with the German flag colours
Other appellation(s)	Paul Oktopus, Paul der Krake
Species	Octopus vulgaris
Sex	Male
Born	January 2008 Weymouth, Dorset
Occupation	Exhibit, Psychic Football Pundit
Known for	Predicting results ofGermany’s footballmatches
Owner	Sea Life Centres(aquarium keeper: Oliver Walenciak)
Named after	A poem by Boy Lornsen, Der Tintenfisch Paul Oktopus

Paul (hatched January 2008) is a common octopus living in a tank at a Sea Life Centre in Oberhausen, Germany, who is used as an animal oracle to predict the results of football matches, usually international matches in which Germany is playing. He came to worldwide attention with his accurate predictions in the 2010 World Cup.

During a divination, Paul is presented with two boxes containing food in the form of a mussel, each marked with the flag of a national football team in an upcoming match. He chose the box with the flag of the winning team in four of Germany’s six Euro 2008 matches, and in all seven of their matches in the 2010 World Cup. He correctly predicted a win for Spain against the Netherlands in the World Cup final on 11 July by eating the mussel in the box with the Spanish flag on it.^[1] His predictions have thus been 100% (8/8) correct for the 2010 World Cup and 86% (12/14) correct overall.

Life

Paul was hatched from an egg at the Sea Life Centre inWeymouth, England, then moved to a tank at one of the chain’s centres in Oberhausen, Germany.^[2] His name derives from the title of a poem by the German children’s writer Boy Lornsen: Der Tintenfisch Paul Oktopus.^[3][4]

The animal rights organization PETA have argued that it would be cruel to keep Paul in permanent confinement. Sea Life Centres have responded that it would be dangerous to release him, because he was born in captivity, and is not accustomed to finding food for himself.^[5]

According to DPA, local businessmen in Carballiño, a community in Galicia (Spain) collected about 30,000 Euro “Transfer fee” to get Paul as main attraction of the local Fiesta del Pulpo festival.^[6]Manuel Pazo, a fisherman and head of the local business club made assurances that Paul would be presented alive in a tank and not on the menu. Sea Life Centres rejected the offer nevertheless.^[7]

Divination

The two plastic boxes which are presented to Paul. The food items are visible in the left-hand corners.

Paul’s career as an oracle began during the UEFA Euro 2008 tournament.^[2][4][8] In the lead-up to Germany’s international football matches, Paul is presented with two clear plastic boxes, each containing food: a mussel or an oyster. Each container is marked with the flag of a team, one the flag of Germany, and the other the flag of Germany’s opponent. The box which Paul opens first (and eats the contents of) is judged to be the predicted winner of the game.^[9]

Paul’s apparent success is comparable to a run of luck when tossing a coin. This connection has been made by Professor Chris Budd of the University of Bath, Professor David Spiegelharter of Cambridge University, and Etienne Roquain of Pierre and Marie Curie University.^[10][11]

Under the hypothesis that Paul is equally likely to choose the winner or the loser of a match, and neglecting the possibility of a draw, he has a 1/2 chance of predicting a single result and a 1/64 chance of predicting six in a row. This feat would be unlikely, but not nearly as unlikely as winning theUK lottery, a chance of 1/14 million. Spiegelharter and Roquain point out that there are “other animals that have attempted but failed to predict the outcome of football matches”; it is not remarkable that one animal is more successful than the others, and only the successful animals will gain public attention after the fact.^[10][11]

Potential biases

Germany (11)

Spain (2)

Serbia (1)

Flags picked by Paul

Roquain goes on to admit that chance is not necessarily the only explanation for Paul’s choices. He could be choosing boxes systematically—if not on the basis of football expertise, then perhaps on his evaluation of the countries’ flags or the food offered.^[11]

The species Octopus vulgaris is almost certainly color blind; neither behavioral studies nor electroretinogram experiments show any discrimination of a color‘shue.^[12][13] Nonetheless, individuals can distinguish brightness as well as an object’s size, shape, and orientation. Shelagh Malham of Bangor Universitystates that they are drawn to horizontal shapes, and indeed, there are horizontal stripes on the flags he has chosen. The flag of Germany, a bold tricolorconsisting of three equal horizontal bands of black, red and gold, is Paul’s usual favorite. But the flag of Spain, with its broad yellow stripe, and the flag of Serbia, with its contrast of blue and white, are more vivid still, possibly explaining why Paul picked those countries over Germany.^[12] Fey suggested that Paul was confused by the similarities between the German and Spanish flags; this was on July 6, when Fey expressed hope that Paul’s latest pick would be wrong.^[14]

Matthew Fuller, the senior aquarist at the Weymouth park, judged the flag-shape theory to be plausible: “[Octopuses] are the most intelligent of all the invertebrates and studies have shown they are able to distinguish shapes and patterns so maybe he’s able to recognise flags.”^[15] Vyacheslav Bisikov, a Russian biologist, agrees that it is possible for an octopus to become attracted to a striped flag.^[16] However, Pascal Coutant, director of the La Rochelle Aquarium states: “It’s complete chance that guides his choices.”^[17]

Octopus vulgaris is also equipped with sensitive chemoreceptors on its tentacles, which are used totaste food and “smell” the water. Biologist Volker Miske, of the University of Greifswald, suggests that minor chemical differences on the surface of each box might account for Paul’s decisions.^[18] Bisikov states that Paul could be “easily trained” to choose the right box by smell.^[16] According to Paul’s keepers, there are holes in the jars to help him choose.^[19]

Theories of his behavior could be systematically tested if Paul were to repeat his selection many times, but he only selects one box per game.^[18] A scientific experiment would be more vigilant towards sources of bias, including the flag visuals and potential differences in the preparation of the food.^[11]

Results

Paul holds a press conference, 6 July 2010.

In UEFA Euro 2008, Paul correctly predicted the outcome of 4 out of 6 of Germany’s matches. He failed to predict their defeats by Croatia in the group stage,^[20] and by Spain in the championship’s final.^{[2][nb 1]}

2010 FIFA World Cup

Paul’s accurate choices for the 2010 World Cup, broadcast live by German news channel NTV, have endowed him with celebrity status.^[2] Paul predicted the winners of each of the seven 2010 FIFA World Cup matches that the German team played, against Australia, Serbia, Ghana, England,Argentina, Spain,^[22] and Uruguay. His prediction that Argentina would lose prompted Argentine chef Nicolas Bedorrou to post an octopus recipe onFacebook.^[2]

There are always people who want to eat our octopus but he is not shy and we are here to protect him as well. He will survive.

—Oliver Walenciak (Paul’s keeper)^[23]

Paul correctly predicted the outcome of the semi-final, by choosing the food in the box marked with the Spanish flag. German supporters drew hope from his incorrect choice for the Germany versus Spain match in the UEFA Euro 2008 but were disappointed.^[24] The prediction led to death threats as German fans called for Paul to be cooked and eaten.^[25][26] In response, Spanish prime minister Jose Zapatero jokingly offered to send Paul official state protection, and the Industry Minister Miguel Sebastian called for Paul to be given safe haven in Spain.^[27][28] Paul maintained a 100% accurate record during the tournament by correctly predicting Spain’s victory over the Netherlands in the final.

Results involving Germany

Euro 2008

Opponent	Stage	Date	Prediction	Result	Outcome
Poland	group stage	8 June	Germany	2–0	Correct
Croatia	group stage	12 June	Germany[2][20]	1–2	Incorrect
Austria	group stage	16 June	Germany	1–0	Correct
Portugal	quarter-finals	19 June	Germany	3–2	Correct
Turkey	semi-finals	25 June	Germany	3–2	Correct
Spain	final	29 June	Germany[2]	0–1	Incorrect

Paul picks Germany over Uruguay on July 9, 2010.

World Cup 2010

Opponent	Stage	Date	Prediction	Result	Outcome
Australia	group stage	13 June	Germany[29]	4–0	Correct
Serbia	group stage	18 June	Serbia[29]	0–1	Correct
Ghana	group stage	23 June	Germany[29]	1–0	Correct
England	round of 16	27 June	Germany[30]	4–1	Correct
Argentina	quarter-finals	3 July	Germany[23]	4–0	Correct
Spain	semi-finals	7 July	Spain[31]	0–1	Correct
Uruguay	3rd place play-off	10 July	Germany[32]	3–2	Correct

Results not involving Germany

Wikinews has related news:‘Psychic’ octopus backs Spain to win World Cup

Paul picks Spain over the Netherlands on July 9, 2010.

Teams	Tournament	Stage	Date	Prediction	Result	Outcome
Netherlands vs. Spain	World Cup 2010	final	11 July	Spain[33]	0–1	Correct

Statistics

Assuming Paul’s predictions were no better than fair independent coin flips, and assuming that the match outcomes were also independent coin flips, the probability of 12 successful predictions in 14 attempts is ~0.65%, as given by the binomial distribution.^[34] And the probability of 8 successful predictions out of 8 attempts is ~0.39%.^[35]. Of course there were many public predictions about World Cup results using quirky methods that were wrong and hence did not get international attention. It is an example of the Prosecutor’s fallacy to use the same data that brought Paul to fame to suggest that he has precognition.